Iraq: A Business Risk Worth Taking

Organisations looking to invest in developing countries need to look beyond generic labels such as ‘BRIC’, and the associations made with geographical regions, and should evaluate countries on an individual basis to discover their true value, according to Richard Fenning, CEO, Control Risks Group.

Speaking at the Economist’s Emerging Markets Summit in London, Fenning said that a term that lumps multiple countries into a single group “supposes a kind of homogeneous nature” is not an accurate assessment of the reality on the ground.

But even when investors look past a country’s regional position, the ‘country brand’ - perceptions of a country fuelled by external commentators such as the media, analysts, international bodies - can distort a true analysis of the risks involved.

“We have to stop looking at the world in terms of these various categories: developing economies, BRIC economies and the next level down, and look at them seriously as independent.” Fenning said.

For those organisations willing to take a ground up approach and understand the local climate for themselves, Fenning reasons, opportunities do exist.

Iraq as the ‘phenomenal risk story’ for 2009

Iraq has, for the past five years, dominated Western news coverage with harrowing tales of sectarian strife, mass suicide bombings, and the collapse of social order and public services. Read More »

Brand Jordan Has Lost Its Way

A couple days ago this story on the closing of popular Books@Café in Jordan slapped me with incredible clarity about many things I’ve been struggling with for a while. When I first read it, I thought, give me a break, that was predictable, another year of the same old confusion during Ramadan.

Then I realized this story comes shortly after this remarkable Jordanian blogger, Ajloun, calls it quits, after seemingly never ending tales of corruption revolving around public officials. This is happening in a country facing political, economic and social challenges all taking a heavy toll, with a local media in a perpetual downward spiral, and an extremely frustrated people.

Brand Jordan is bust. Brand Jordan is in the worse shape ever, it seems. Read More »

Fouad Siniora in Iraq: Progress Between Iraq and Lebanon?

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora traveled to Baghdad last week, becoming the first Lebanese leader to visit Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein. This was a further step toward Iraqi reconciliation with its Arab neighbours and a step toward the restoration of commercial relations between two former trading partners.

The announcement came a day after Iraqi government spokesman Ali Al-Dabbagh announced that seven Arab countries are set to reopen their embassies in Baghdad this year. These countries include Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Algeria and Morocco.

Jordan also recently announced that it would reopen its embassy to Iraq after the historic visit of King Abdullah, who became the first Arab head of state to do so since the 2003 invasion that toppled the former regime.

Lebanon is only one of five Arab states to currently have an embassy in Iraq, alongside Syria, Palestine, Yemen, Lebanon and Tunisia, which it opened in 2006. Official relations had been strained for six years between 1994 and 2000 when Lebanon broke its relations with Iraq in 1994 following the murder of an Iraqi dissident in Lebanon.

Sinioria travelled to Baghdad to discuss trade and energy, his spokesman quoted by the AFP as saying: “The discussions with Iraqi leaders will be on bilateral relations and particularly trade and oil.”

Renewed relations with Lebanon would be a positive sign for Maliki’s government, and both countries share a similar recent history. Read More »

Iraq’s Money and America’s Responsibility

$80 billion can buy a lot of things – a tropical island or ten Caecescu palaces jump to mind – but what it can’t buy is infrastructure for a country with a population of almost 28 million people that is emerging from five years of ruinous geo-political and sectarian conflict.

As violence tapers off, oil exports increase, and global crude prices remain high, Iraq’s economy is set to grow by 8 percent in 2008 and will end the year with a predicted $79 billion budget surplus, according to a report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

But with the U.S. presidential campaign in full swing the Democrats are lashing out at Iraq for draining American money and American lives. The media machine has been in overdrive, with scathing attacks from both neo-con and liberal commentators scoring points on the same issues: U.S. lives, U.S. money, and the impact on the lives of U.S. consumers.

They demand that Iraq now pay is own way for reconstruction and embrace a potentially tragic cut-and-run strategy that could lead to further internal and regional instability. Read More »

Business News: Angel Investing in the Middle East

Dubai, United Arab Emirates - On May 4th and 5th of this year, the Arab Business Angels Network will host an entrepreneurs/investors workshop and matchmaking event at the Dubai International Financial Center.

The event is being described as a chance to explore both entrepreneurship strategies and opportunities with up-and-coming businesses in the region, with speakers ranging from Anthony Clarke of GLE Growth Capital to Michael Blakey of Avonmore Developments Ltd. A key part of the happening will involve the actual entrepreneur pitches.

Angel investing is a relatively new phenomenon in the Middle East, and it will be fascinating to see whether or not the concept takes off.

Certainly Dubai, with its present position as the financial capital of the region, appears to be the prime location for such an event.

The Arab 100: Politics Is Bad For Business

One of the most common criticisms of the annual World’s Most Influential Arabs List is how deliberately apolitical and therefore unhelpful the exercise is.

It’s an assessment that goes to the root of modern critiques of capitalism: the idea that money is power and if you don’t have it, you don’t matter. However, I need to point out that ranking political capital in the Arab world is not particularly inspiring or exciting, if the news are to be believed.

When I was studying in the United States, I noticed that many people who criticized capitalism did not have a concrete alternative to offer, unless “let’s live in a commune, grow our own potatoes, and go to the bathroom in a hole in the ground” counts as an alternative. In the Arab world, by contrast, critics of capitalism are too ready to jump in bed with religious fundamentalists.

Suddenly, an outhouse sounds more and more appealing. Read More »

World Poverty: Will The UN Millenium Declaration Make A Difference?

I was quite happy the other days to have received a call from a long time friend whose news I had not had for at least a year. After the usual exchanges, he switched to a slightly more ironic tone and said: “The main reason for my call is to shake you out of your pessimism about the evolution of world poverty. According to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world poverty rate has fallen dramatically. You should rejoice.”

Indeed, there is nothing that I would have liked better but for my suspicion about how international institutions, dominated by ideologues, interpret data; although the IMF is not the worst of the lot.

The first questions that came to me were: How was “poverty” defined, by how much had the rate fallen, were the numerous pockets of poverty in rich countries included, etc. Of course, the need for answers drove me straight to the figures to which my friend referred.

Read More »

Understanding The World Poverty Dilemma

The international community has grown accustomed to the fact that economic growth between countries and regions will always be unequal, yet it is more and more uneasy with the “gap” in average incomes between rich and poor countries. That gap also bodes only embarrassment for the proponents of globalization.

So, they would rather stress a diminution of the “proportion” of the world poor. Indeed, they remind us at every opportunity that, contrary to the claims of the alter-globalizers, the world economic situation has never been so good, because world poverty is retreating. The issue as to whether or not world poverty is decreasing or increasing must now be put in the proper perspective, if we do not want to see it buried in linguistic conundrums. Read More »

The Arab Free Trade Zone - The Arab World’s Best Kept Secret!

Call me old fashioned, but I believe in Arab unity. Yes, I know all the counter-arguments that are the norm these days in every dinner party in every corner of the Arab world. Arab unity, many “pragmatist” Arabs love to proclaim, is just a dream that was shattered by the failure of the Pan-Arab project in the 1950’s and 1960’s, culminating in the defeat of 1967, and, more recently, by the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. here are a multitude of responses that can be made to such claims. I can point out that Arab unity is not some fancy idea that blows in the direction of every passing political event; it is an issue of identity rooted in language and history, two of the most important constituents of nationhood. But, more importantly, the pitch for Arab Unity in the 21st century must be economic. Read More »